Saturday, August 16, 2025

Caltrain Service to South County Part 2

I’ve seen the June South County Caltrain ridership numbers (Monday-Friday 4 Trains North in morning and 4 Trains South in evening) Gilroy 126 riders/day, San Martin 22 riders/day, Morgan Hill 104 riders/day, Blossom Hill 68 riders/day, Capitol 45 riders/day. It's not fiscally responsible to fund Caltrain South County at $15 million for 365 riders/day M-F when they aren’t serving the current commute travel patterns and while VTA is facing a fiscally constrained FY26 and FY27 Transit Operating Budget. Caltrain is heading into a deficit for FY27 too. These five stations south of Tamien are not electrified and Caltrain doesn’t own the tracks, Union Pacific Railroad does. South County Caltrain service doesn’t have the impact needed to relieve congestion on U.S. Route 101 today or historically.

We continue to talk about this at our South County VTA agenda preparation meetings with VTA staff and Caltrain staff. VTA plays a role in our development review process, Caltrain doesn’t. We are focused on moving the most people on mass transit from Gilroy to Diridon. We track and budget the ridership/cost from both agencies and have been comparing them for a long time. When ridership is low, services get cut, that’s a given.
 
As of June 2025, the VTA’s Frequent 68 (San Jose to Gilroy every day) runs every 15 minutes averages 4,309 daily boardings and the Rapid 568 (San Jose to Gilroy Monday-Friday) runs every 30 minutes averages 853 daily boardings. I’ve been keeping track for a few years and reporting out the numbers at Gilroy City Council meetings and my newsletters. Those are numbers to support the cost to operate, while we continue to shift residents to transit through local policies, programs, and marketing.


Caltrain plans on putting the full burden of the South County Caltrain (Capitol, Blossom Hill, Morgan Hill, San Martin, Gilroy) cost onto VTA and it starts at $15 million. More trains or increased frequency will increase that cost. Caltrain operations should not be funded from VTA Transit funds, 2000 Measure A funds, or 2016 Measure B Caltrain Corridor Capacity. There are no grants that would be beneficial in funding this current level of service and ridership.

Caltrain is currently using Federal Tax funds to operate South County Caltrain and that is about to run out. Those funds could be better spent on service that meets the needs for mass transit. Gilroy isn’t the starting point for traffic any longer. San Benito County and Monterey County drivers contribute to it as well. 

The State provided funding for one battery powered train (not four) which will serve as a pilot and it is supposed to run on the electrified system from Diridon to SF. The last update I received is this is not going to happen in FY26 or FY27. 

VTA, Caltrain, and South County communities do minimal to increase South County Caltrain ridership, so the expectation that suddenly ridership on Caltrain will increase is not a reality today. It's not fiscally responsible to fund $15 million for 365 riders/day M-F. Enhancing the current South County ridership of the Frequent 68 and Rapid 568 lines is the more fiscally responsible path for these next two years. 

I encourage both VTA and Caltrain to pause South County Caltrain service while we work collaboratively with all partners on ways to double track or purchase the existing tracks with a goal to have the same service levels as Tamien to San Francisco. Continue to enhance the successful current services on the VTA Frequent 68 and Rapid 568 bus lines that currently serve thousands of daily riders from South County. 

I am proud to represent Gilroy on the Valley Transportation Authority (VTA) Policy Advisory Committee (PAC) and CalTrain Local Policy Maker Group (LPMG) in 2025.